Institutional Budgeting, Technological Constraint and Relational Stabilisation: A Critical Realist Study of Investment Deviation in Renewable Energy Projects in Kazakhstan

Abstract

This study investigates the generative mechanisms underlying investment deviation and operational performance in renewable energy projects, moving beyond behavioural accounts toward a structural explanation grounded in critical realism. The methodology used a multiple-case retroduction design is applied to nine renewable energy projects (seven wind, two solar) in Kazakhstan, 2020–2025. Evidence is triangulated across business plans, completion audit reports, financial statements, monthly generation records, tariff schedules and ESG disclosures. Projects are anonymised as A–I. Data are analysed by retroduction and process tracing. The findings indicate three interacting mechanisms shape deviation and performance. First, performative budgeting practices, institutionalised safety margins attached to investment preference claims, pre-configure what is later recorded as “saving” or “overrun”. Second, differential predictability conditions arising from technological architecture explain why the solar case achieves near-zero deviation while wind cases disperse widely. Third, ESG practices operate as a dual-function relational mechanism, stabilising stakeholder relations while also imposing coordination costs. Apparent forecast accuracy in two recently commissioned projects reflects offsetting tariff and generation deviations rather than predictive precision. The patterns cannot be fully explained by behavioural accounts; they point to structurally embedded processes within open socio-economic systems. The study reframes investment deviation as an emergent outcome of interacting mechanisms within open socio-economic systems. It contributes to critical realist accounting research by integrating Choudhury’s circular causation with Bhaskarian stratification at project level.